# Bayesian – Fundamentals¶

## Probabilistic modeling¶

The goal of probabilistic modeling:

• Classify the samples into groups
• Create prediction for future observations
• Select between competing hypothesis
• Estimate a parameter, such as the mean of a population

How do we run probabilistic modeling?

1. Models: Bayesian networks, Sparse Bayesian linear regression, Gaussian mixture models, latent linear models
2. Methods for inference: max likelihood, max a posteriori(MAP), Laplace approx., expectation maximization(EM), Variational Bayes(VB), Stochastic variational inference(SVI)
3. And choose a way to select different models based on your inference and update your model!

## Bayes’ Theorem¶

Bayes’ theorem describes probabilities of an event, based on prior knowledge – called hypothesis in Bayesian inference – that might be related to the event – called evidence in Bayesian inference.

\begin{split}\begin{align} P(A|B) &= \frac{P(B|A)}{P(B)} \times P(A) \\ \text{posterior} &= \frac{\text{Likelihood}}{\text{Marginal likelihood/Evidence}} \times \text{prior} \\ \text{Evidence} &= P(B) = \int P(B, A) \, \mathrm{d}A \end{align}\end{split}

### Bayesian vs. Frequentist¶

• In Probability domain They all use Bayes’ formula when a prior $$p(\theta)$$ is known.
• In Statistics domain In statistics prior is unknown and it’s where the two diverge.
• Bayesians: they need a prior, so they develop one from the best information they have.
• Frequentists: They draw inferences from likelihood func.

< Using Bayes’ theorem one can inverse conditional probabilities. The red items are new information. Source: Gnathan87 CC0 [2]>

### Conjugate priors¶

Suppose we have data with likelihood function $$p(x|\theta)$$ depending on a hypothesized parameter. Also suppose the prior distribution for $$\theta$$ is one of a family of parameterized distributions. If the posterior distribution for $$\theta$$ is in this family then we say the prior is a conjugate prior for the likelihood.

#### Examples¶

• Beta is conjugate to Bernoulli
• Gaussian is conjugate to Gaussian
• Any exponential family has a conjugate prior
Prior Hypothesis data Likelihood Posterior
$$beta(a,b)$$ $$\theta \in [0,1]$$ x $$Bernoulli(\theta)$$ $$beta(a+1, b)$$ or $$beta(a, b+1)$$
$$beta(a,b)$$ $$\theta \in [0,1]$$ x $$Binomial(N, \theta)$$ $$beta(a+x, b+N-x)$$
$$beta(a,b)$$ $$\theta \in [0,1]$$ x $$geometric(\theta)$$ $$beta(a+x, b+1)$$
$$\mathcal{N}(\mu_{prior}, \sigma_{prior}^2)$$ $$\theta \in (-\infty,\infty)$$ x $$\mathcal{N}(\theta,\sigma^2)$$ $$\mathcal{N}(\theta_{post},\sigma_{post}^2)$$

### Weakly informative prior¶

It a prior distribution which doesn’t contain much information, but contains some enough information ‘regularize’ the posterior distribution, and to keep it roughly within reasonable bounds. It is often used in situations where we don’t have much information but we want to ensure that the posterior distribution makes sense.

### Improper prior¶

An improper prior is essentially a prior probability distribution that’s infinitesimal over an infinite range, in order to add to one. For example, the uniform prior over all real numbers is an improper prior, as there would be an infinitesimal probability of getting a result in any finite range. It’s common to use improper priors for when you have no prior information. [5]

## Bayesian Inference¶

Bayesian inference is just one application of Bayes’ theorem [1]. We use it when we don’t have as much data as you wish and want to maximize your predictive strenth. The bayes’ theorem could be interpreted in the following way.

$P(H|E) = \frac{P(E|H)P(H)}{P(E)}$
• $$H$$: Hypothesis.
• A hypothesis is a possible answer to the question being asked. It can be affected by new data or Evidence, $$E$$. There can be multiple hypotheses and our job is to get the best one.
• $$E$$: Evidence.
• It’s new data observed.
• $$P(H)$$: Prior probability.
• The probability of the hypothesis before the current evidence/data/$$E$$ is observed. It is the initial degree of belief in $$H$$.
• $$P(H|E)$$: Posterior probability.
• The probability of the hypothesis after the current evidence/data/$$E$$ is observed. This is what we want to know ultimately. The higher the posterior is our hypothesis well-fits to new data. It is a degree of belief having accounted for $$E$$.
• $$P(E|H)$$: Likelihood.
• The probability of current evidence/data/$$E$$ given hypothesis. It’s just another fancy name for conditional probability i.e., $$P(A|B)$$ could be read as “How A is likely to occur given B?”. Note, it’s NOT a distribution [4]!
• $$P(E)$$: Marginal likelihood or model evidence.
• This factor is the same for all hypotheses i.e., this does not enter into determining the relative probabilities of different hypotheses.

The Bayes’ rule can be rewritten as

$P(H|E) = \frac{P(E|H)}{P(E)}\cdot{P(H)}$

where the factor $$\frac{P(E|H)}{P(E)}$$ represents the impact/support of $$E$$ on $$H$$. This statement may be confusing but if one looks at the theorem it becomes obvious.

\begin{split}\begin{align} P(H|E) &\propto \frac{P(E|H)}{P(E)}, \quad \text{AND} \\ P(H|E) &\propto P(H) \quad \text{i.e.,} \\ \end{align}\end{split}
$\text{Both P(H) and \frac{P(E|H)}{P(E)} are factors of the posterior}$

### Everyday-life example¶

I found a very intuitive example by Brandon [3]. In the article both frequentists and bayesians use Bayes’ theorem. The difference is frequentists use uniform prior and bayesians use whatever they can. The prior could be empirical distribution such as age is between 0 and 130, temperature higher than -276 Celcius.

< Bayesian vs. Frequentists. Source: Brandon Brohrer >

The peak/mean of frequentists’ distribution is the Maximam Likelihood Estimate(MLE). The peak/mean of bayesian distribution is the Maximum A Posteriori estimate(MAP).

As Brandon mentions one should be aware of Bayesian traps. In Bayesian inference, we build prior ourselves and if the observed value doesn’t exist in our prior then the posterior would be zero. Common trick is to use the normal distribution in order to keep the very low edges but which never becomes zero.

References